What that means for 2019 isn’t clear, as evidenced by running back

With the addition of Stanford running back Bryce Love in round four Sam Huff Jersey , Washington now has four tailbacks who have suffered torn ACLs. Derrius Guice‘s reaction to the selection of Bryce Love.Guice’s choice of emoji suggests that he’s speechless or confused. Confusion is an appropriate term for the team’s depth chart, given that Guice’s rehab is reportedly “coming along a little slower,” and given that pre-draft video of Love working out looks like it was sped up to mask the possibility that he’s not where he needs to be.Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson (who tore an ACL in 2011) has a two-year, $5 million deal with another $3 million in incentives. That gives him a very strong incentive to hold off the youngsters and to continue to be the guy.Washington also has Chris Thompson, who tore an ACL in college. Through it all, Samaje Perine continues to be overlooked. Perine, who had a 427-yard rushing game while at Oklahoma, appeared in only five games last year. As a rookie, he had 603 yards in 16 games — but he averaged only 3.4 yards per carry. The argument for trading down in the draftLast week I posted an article titled The statistical argument for trading down in the draft.One of the problems with the central argument was that it..."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Looks Like Someone Has A Sixpack Of The MondaysDaily SlopRedskins RecapsEDTShareTweetShareShareIt’s time to go (back) to ‘Plan B’The argument for trading down in the draftLast week I posted an article titled The statistical argument for trading down in the draft.One of the problems with the central argument was that it treated the NFL draft much like the stock market or other primary or secondary trade markets. In the stock market, which was the central model that the 538 article started with, buyers and sellers are trading stocks, which have the characteristics of commodities.In economics, the term commodity is used specifically for economic goods or services that have full or partial but substantial fungibility; that is, individual units are essentially interchangeable, and each of its parts is indistinguishable from another part.Think of one ounce silver or gold ingots. They all have the same size, shape, weight and color. One is like the next, and each has the same value.If you are buying a ton of wheat, one ton is much like the next. Karl Marx described this property as follows: “From the taste of wheat, it is not possible to tell who produced it — a Russian serf, a French peasant or an English capitalist.”Petroleum and copper are other examples of commodity goods; their supply and demand are a part of one universal market.The stock market is the same. Once a price is set for a share of, say, IBM, Microsoft or Starbucks, it doesn’t matter whether the buyer purchases a bundle of shares all from a single seller or aggregates the purchase from a dozen different sellers; the product (the share itself) is indistinguishable one from the next.Not so with NFL players — the grist in the mill of the NFL draft. Unlike grist, NFL players are not commodities. Each player is different, and each will carve a unique path in his future career.One might argue that they can Charles Mann Jersey , to a large extent, be graded (like, say cuts of beef) to make them more like commodities, and to some extent that’s true. Isn’t that largely the intent of the annual NFL combine — to use standard ‘grading’ in order to create a uniformly informed market of ‘buyers’ among the 32 NFL franchises?Still, even after all the measuring and sorting has been done, the draft is about analysis of individuals across a wide array of tangible and intangible characteristics, and there isn’t even one absolute “best” standard for players; often, a player’s value is affected by how he “fits” a particular team’s culture and roster needs.In short, the evaluation of players in a model that treats them like commodities that can be easily graded (using AV) like cuts of meat ignores a huge number of realities in the NFL.The argument for trading up to get your franchise quarterbackRealizing that the argument put forward in the 538 article was flawed, I authored a new article more recently that tried to explain why NFL teams are forced by the rules of parity — salary cap, free agency, the draft, and so on — trade up in the draft in search of a franchise quarterback.Trading up is actually a pot-luck affairHowever, that article glossed over a huge problem: a high draft pick doesn’t guarantee that the player selected will actually develop into the franchise cornerstone that the team is hoping for, and the front office might well burn up a lot of draft capital to acquire that premium draft pick and get no real payoff on its investment.There are questions about Jameis Winston that need to be answered soon; the Jaguars seem to have finally answered all their questions about Blake Bortles, resulting in his release;the first QB off the board in 2013 was the 13th pick, and not a single quarterback from that class has developed into a reliable starter; we all know the RG3 story by heart, and 8th overall pick Ryan Tannehill seems to have finally washed out without ever really succeeding.The fact is, successful quarterbacks are more likely to come from outside the top-10 picks in the draft.Consider the draft position of these NFL signal callers:Lamar Jackson 32nd overallDeshaun Watson 12th overallDak Prescott 135th overallTeddy Bridgewater 32nd overallDerek Carr 36th overallJimmy Garoppolo 62nd overallRussell Wilson 75th overallNick Foles 88th overallKirk Cousins 102nd overallAndy Dalton 35th overallTyrod Taylor 180th overallColt McCoy 85th overallCase Keenum UndraftedJoe Flacco 18th overallAaron Rodgers 24th overallRyan Fitzpatrick 250th overallBen Rothlisberger 11th overallDrew Brees 32nd overallTom Brady 199th overallThat’s 19 quarterbacks, with at least 16 of them likely to be opening day starters, drafted outside of the top-ten picks.Here are the other likely 2019 starters who were drafted in the top-10: (4) 2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen(2) 2017: Trubisky, Mahomes(2) 2016: Goff, Wentz(2) 2015: Winston, Mariota(1) 2012: Luck(1) 2011: Newton(1) 2008: Matt Ryan(1) 2005: Eli ManningThat’s 14 quarterbacks drafted in the top-10, still in the NFL, healthy Dexter Manley Jersey , and likely to start for their teams on opening day in September.From the first group, 12 players were taken in the 2nd round or later (and one was undrafted!).What this tells us is one very simple fact:If you want to draft a starting quarterback for your franchise, you don’t have to be drafting in the top-10.You don’t even have to be drafting in the first round!Look at 2014, when Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr were taken in the second round (with Bridgewater taken #32 overall).Or, look two years earlier to 2012, when Russell Wilson & Nick Foles were drafted in the 3rd, and Kirk Cousins was taken in the 4th.Do you want the good news first, or the bad news?The good news, if you need a quarterback for your franchise, is that you don’t need to be picking at the top of the draft to get your guy.Starting quarterbacks can be found anywhere in the first round, and often in the 2nd.Today’s current crop of starters includes players taken in the 3rd, 4th and (famously in the case of Tom Brady) 6th rounds.The bad news is, front offices don’t have a great record at identifying the best quarterback in the class.In 2017, Trubisky was drafted 8 spots ahead of Mahomes.In 2016, here are the 5 quarterbacks that came off the board after Wentz but before Dak Prescott: Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Conner Cook.In 2014, Johnny Manziel was the 2nd QB taken — ahead of Bridgewater, Carr and Garoppolo.In 2012, Weeden & Osweiler were drafted before Russell Wilson, Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins.In 2011, Locker, Gabbert & Ponder went ahead of Andy Dalton.Starting quarterbacks can be drafted anywhere in the first round — they don’t have to be the top two guys off the board.In addition, plenty of starters have been drafted in the 2nd, with a few even coming in the 3rd or 4th rounds.is likely to develop well enough to win with this defense-first strategy.The lottery for a top-3 draft pick is a proven way to burn up draft capital on high risk investments.Getting a top-tier quarterback in any of those ways is expensive (in dollars or draft capital) and unreliable in terms of results, as history has shown.It took the Redskins half a decade to recover from the RG3 trade.Other teams (like the Jags with Bortles or the ‘Phins with Tannehill) have spent years wasting competitive opportunities because they had too much invested in the drafted starter to cut bait.But stocking every position group with top tier talent to help out a middling quarterback who simply takes care of the football and doesn’t lose the game — now that’s a strategy that can be implemented successfully and maintained over a long period of time.That’s ‘Plan B’.That’s the plan the Redskins need.