Moderatoren » Skip to main contentclockmenumore-

Well Womens Dick Butkus Jersey , maybe the Vikings? But not really..." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesHorizontal - WhiteWindy City GridironWindy City Gridiron - Being who you thought we were since 2005!Log In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsSectionsBearsOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Latest NewsThe Bears DenNotesXs and OsSuperfansFiled under:NFL DraftFrom The Desk Of...NFL DraftExamining Draft Trade Value Charts: The NFL Still Doesn’t Care About Chase StuartNew,52commentsWell, maybe the Vikings? But not really...CDTShareTweetShareShareExamining Draft Trade Value Charts: The NFL Still Doesn’t Care About Chase StuartPhoto by Mitchell Leff/Getty ImagesSpend any time reading or listening to draft coverage in the NFL, and you will quickly encounter the idea of a draft value trade charts. Essentially, the idea is that each draft pick has a certain value attached to it, and that when two teams want to trade picks, they consult a third-party reference, a chart, to figure out the general value of each selection.So far, this makes a lot of sense. However, talking heads, journalists, and bloggers (such as myself) frequently disagree about what chart should be used. There is the famed Jimmy Johnson chart—older than most of the players currently active in the NFL. There is also the Chase Stuart chart, which analytics fans will tell you is the “real” chart. It describes not what prices are paid for picks, but what (historically) the actual value is of each draft pick when compared to a metric called Career Average Value. Adherents of the Stuart chart point out that the Johnson chart privileges high picks far too much, that the fall-off is too steep, and that the newer chart as far more reflective of what players and picks “are really worth.”There’s just one problem: the NFL clearly does not care, as these charts show [Link].In the first three rounds of the 2019 NFL draft, there were twenty-three trades involving only picks (no players). Fourteen of those trades saw the higher draft pick bought or sold for within 5% of the values described by the Johnson Chart. Nineteen of the trades (83%) saw the higher pick bought or sold for 10% of the Johnson values. Every trade falls within 20%. In other words, after all these years, the Johnson chart is not bad.How about the Chase Stuart chart? Well...exactly two trades fell within 5% of the Stuart chart’s proposed values. The Vikings gave the Lions the #81 pick in the draft for what turns out to be 97% of the Stuart chart’s values, and they also gave the Jets the #92 pick in the draft for about the same value (in this case, the moved down one spot to pick up a 7th-rounder). Add the Raiders’ trade with the Jaguars, and you have all three times the Stuart chart was within 10% of the values traded. Even with a generous margin of +/- 20% William Perry Jersey , only nine of the trades fall within Stuart’s proposed values. Interestingly, there is only one trade where Stuart’s values were closer than Johnson’s values, and that was the Lions-Vikings trade mentioned above. Interestingly, there are teams (like the Vikings) who are clearly willing to sell picks for less than Johnson book values. Those teams end up matching the Stuart model more closely, and they probably have a reason for offering these discounts.Every trade in the first two days of the 2019 NFL draft says that the team moving up overpaid by the Stuart model, and that’s because the Stuart model favors (heavily) delivered value. It points out that there is very little increase in actual value as teams move up the ladder, and so the Stuart model is always going to favor moving down. Up to a point, this is sound.Bears fans “in the know” thus have a good reason to be frustrated as GM Ryan Pace consistently sheds picks and gives up value in order to make sure he gets the exact player he wants. By moving up the current, he is defying historical trends that show (decisively) that he is making a mistake. On average, statistically, his approach will fail.However, NFL teams are not playing to win 9.7 games. They are playing to win each and every game. A player who gains 3.4 yards on a carry is a very marginal advantage over a player who gains 3.5 yards. Unless, of course, the team needs 3.45 yards to move the chains and that infamous index card comes out. There is not a lot of difference in marginal utility between a player who sacks the quarterback 54 times in a career than one who sacks the quarterback 55.5 times, unless those last 1.5 times come during a divisional game to clinch a playoff berth.NFL teams do, consistently, pay a premium in order to move up. Chase Stuart is 100% correct in thinking that the actual value they receive is not reflective of the prices they pay. However, NFL GMs consistently show that regardless of whether or not Stuart is correct about delivered value and its meaning, his chart is an abstraction. They don’t care. It’s probably time for fans, for pundits, and for draft gurus to accept that fact. Now the Rich Hill chart, on the other hand...(to be continued) Free agency starts next week and the Chicago Bears are looking to complete their Super Bowl contending roster. What will Ryan Pace do? We’ll project it here for you."Being who you thought we were since 2005!Log In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsSectionsBearsOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Latest NewsThe Bears DenNotesXs and OsSuperfans2019 Chicago Bears mock free agency and mock draftNew,36commentsFree agency starts next week and the Chicago Bears are looking to complete their Super Bowl contending roster. What will Ryan Pace do? We’ll project it here for you.CSTShareTweetShareShare2019 Chicago Bears mock free agency and mock draftBrad Rempel-USA TODAY SportsBrace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY SportsThe Chicago Bears offseason is upon us and because of that, it’s time to let the imagination fly. Even so http://www.thebearslockerroom.com/authentic-mike-ditka-jersey , this is a team that is currently tight against the cap and will still have more movement before they can spend with any sort of impact, if that is indeed the plan.There’s plenty that can happen in an offseason, so I’m going to do my best to project a combination of what I think general manager Ryan Pace would do and what I would do as well.Without further ado, let’s jump into this head first.Current Cap Space: $18.146 millionThis includes every currently announced cut and I also projected Cody Parkey’s cut in here as well, since there will be no additional cap penalties in 2019 because of the June 1st designation. This also includes the $2.5 million cap credit from Mike Glennon’s 2018 offset language.Cap Savers: (+$12.751 million)Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY SportsRestructure Khalil Mack. (+$8.396 million)projecting that the Bears will trade Howard and a 2020 sixth-round pick to the Buffalo Bills for their fourth round comp pick (#132). This saves money and makes the most sense for both sides if Pace feels comfortable with the return.Notes: Converting Mack’s base salary into a bonus is somewhat of a risk, but even an extra $2 million in dead space over the next five years isn’t going to cripple them, especially when the cap has continued to rise by $10-$12 million each year. Total Cap Space: $30.38 millionInternal Free Agents (8)2019 MOCK FREE AGENCYMike DiNovo-USA TODAY SportsCB Bryce Callahan (Four years, $26 million with $12 million guaranteed) $4.75 million hit(Comp: Bobby McCain)WR Josh Bellamy (Two years, $3.5 million with $1.1M guaranteed) $1.5 million hit(Comp: Sherrick McManis)G Bryan Witzmann (Two years, $3 million with $600,000 guaranteed) $1.25 million hit (Comp: Eric Kush) LS Patrick Scales (Three years, $3.5 million with $1.25M guaranteed) $1 million hit(Comp: Mike Windt)TE Ben Braunecker (One year, $900,00 with $150,000 guaranteed) $900,000 hit(Comp: Daniel Brown)S DeAndre Houston-Carson (One year, $700,000)$700,000 hitDL Roy Robertson-Harris (one year, $650,000 (ERFA) $650,000 hitRT Rashaad Coward (one year, $650,000) (ERFA) $650 Womens Richard Dent Jersey ,000 hitNotes: This is going to be an interesting group to follow. It’s quite possible that the Bears could end up retaining both Adrian Amos and Callahan after hitting the market, especially with how packed both markets are at their respective positions. The Bears have been vocal about wanting to retain both, and judging by the lack of reported buzz from both players at the combine, this seems more and more realistic. Even so, I’m still going to make this a safer projection and assume that just one of the two comes back.Total Spent (after the rule of 51): (-$6.87 million)Current Cap Space: $23.567 millionPrimary Outside Free Agents (6)Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY SportsOLB Terrell Suggs (Two years, $12 million with $5.5 million guaranteed) $5.5 million hit (Comp: Cam Wake)RB T.J. Yeldon (Three years, $12 million with $6 million guaranteed) $3 million hit (Comp: Isaiah Crowell) DB Brian Poole (Three years, $10.5 million with $4 million guaranteed) $2.5 million hit (Comp: Terrance Mitchell)CB P.J. Williams (One year, $1.5 million with $500,000 guaranteed) $1.5 million hit (Comp: Marcus Cooper)K Kai Forbath (One year, $1 million with $200K guaranteed) $1 million hitWR De’Anthony Thomas (One year, $900,000 $150,000 guaranteed) $900,000 million hit Notes: This isn’t going to be some extravagant offseason for the team like in previous years. They don’t have the resources to go out and sign multiple contracts in the $8-$10 million range, but that’s alright. Their holes will be minimal and the focus should be more about finding missing pieces in the short-term that can help push them team closer to a Super Bowl. It’s possible the Bears could do better at safety than Poole, but I have a feeling Pagano will want versatility, which the former Falcon brings. There’s also “better” options than Yeldon at running back, but stylistically, he fits like a glove. Maybe they’ll shell out $7 million per year for someone like Tevin Coleman, but I’ll keep my projection more conservative for the time being.Total Spent (After rule of 51): (-$10.98 million)Current Cap Space: $12.587 millionExtensions: (-$3 million)Kyle Terada-USA TODAY SportsOC Cody Whitehair (Four years, $38 million with $21 million guaranteed) $3 million in 2019 (Comp: Ryan Jensen)Notes: At this point, a Whitehair extension has not only been widely speculation by names like Adam Jahns and Biggs, but it seems like a foregone conclusion this summer. It’s a no-brainer and speaks to Pace’s ability to land talent out of the first round. Current Cap Space: $9.587 millionDraft Class (-$2.5 million)2019 MOCK DRAFTReinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports3rd (#87): RB Miles Sanders (Penn St)This is a running back class that simply didn’t test very well as a whole Dan Hampton Jersey , but even so, there’s not a lot of first round talent, if any in this class. This should be a good thing for the Bears. Sanders is someone who didn’t originally pop to me on film, but the more and more I watched him, the more attractive he was. He’s a one-year starter with minimal miles. He doesn’t have a ton of long speed and may dance too much behind the line, but he has all the physical makings of a primary back in Nagy’s offense.4th (#126): DB Amani Hooker (Iowa)Much like the Poole signing, I expect the Bears to look for versatile options in the defensive backfield. Hooker can play in the nickel, either boundary spot or at strong safety. He’s someone that was used in multiple ways at Iowa and if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s to trust a good friend of mine who covers that team. He raves about Hooker and it’s easy to see why. Could be a plug and play starter from day one, but the Bears won’t need him to be.4th (#132): TE Foster Moreau (LSU) Projected Trade with BuffaloI’ve kicked a few different tight ends around at this pick. My other choice would have been Texas A&M product Jace Sternberger, but I find it hard to believe he’ll be sitting there in the late fourth, so enter Moreau. He’s not a crazy athletic kid, but he’s big, has steady hands and is an outstanding blocker. The Bears have invested heavy at the position, but this may be a needed addition.5th (#162): WR Penny Hart (Georgia St)Depending on who you talk to, receiver is either a bigger need than meets the eye or receiver is not a worry at all. I’m more in the middle. I don’t think they need to go out and spent big money or use a high pick, but finding Taylor Gabriel’s eventual replacement in the fifth-round wouldn’t be bad. Hart is smaller, but he’s very quick and could be used perfectly in Nagy’s offense.7th (#222): K Matt Gay (Utah)The Bears are likely to draft a kicker, seeing as how they have a pair of seventh round picks. Right now, the two kickers on the roster are Redford Jones and Chris Blewitt. Neither have NFL experience. Enter Gay, who has one hell of a leg. 7th (#238): OG Alex Bars (Notre Dame)This pick is all about value and development. Kyle Long restructured his deal to help the team for a year, but has over a $9 million cap hit in 2020. Bars has experience with Harry Hiestand and could be a nice developmental pick or depth at worst.Total Remaining Cap Space: $7.087 millionOffensive Depth ChartQB Trubisky/DanielRB Yeldon/Sanders/Cohen/MizzellWR1 Robinson/BellamyWR2 Gabriel/WimsWR3 Miller/Thomas/HartTE Burton/Shaheen/Moreau/BrauneckerRT Massie/CowardRG Long/WitzmannC WhitehairLG Daniels/BarsLT Leno/SowellDefensive Depth ChartDE Hicks/BullardNT GoldmanDE Nichols/Robertson-HarrisOLB Mack/Suggs/FittsILB Smith/KwiatkoskiILB Trevathan/IggyOLB Floyd/IrvingCB1 Fuller/Hooker/WilliamsCB2 Amukamara/ToliverSS Poole/Bush/HookerFS Jackson/Houston-CarsonNCB Callahan/McManisSpecial Teams Depth ChartK Gay/Jones/ForbathP UDFA/UDFAKR Thomas/CohenPR Cohen/Thomas